Photo : Anne-Christine Poujoulat/REUTERS
12 February 2022, Saturday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #123
IN FOCUS
By Padmashree Anandhan
The Normandy format: A profile
On 10 February, similar to the previous meet in January, an advisory level meeting was held between Germany, France, Ukraine, and Russia in Berlin. The meeting was conducted amidst in the backdrop of a warning from the US on the possibility of an invasion by Russia. The meeting aimed to bring the focus back on the 2015 Minsk agreement to stop war tensions in the eastern Ukraine region. Since none of the parties agreed to the negotiations made, no motion was passed. Kremlin envoy Dmitry Kozak said: “Unfortunately, almost nine hours of negotiations ended without any visible, tangible results expressed in documents.”
On 26 January, Germany, France, Ukraine, and Russia representatives held talks under the Normandy Format at the Elysee Palace in Paris. After the talks, Adviser to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Andriy Yermak welcomed the format and said it was positive.
Normandy format: A profile
The Normandy format is devised to regulate a four-way talk to end the armed conflict in eastern Ukraine between the Ukraine government and the pro-Russian separatists. The parties to the format were France, Germany, Ukraine, and Russia. The talk first took place in 2014 in Normandy on a similar conflict situation in Ukraine, where Russia had annexed Crimea and the pro-Russian separatists infiltrated eastern Ukraine. Until 2019, the Normandy talks were paused. The invitation to other states such as Belarus, Italy and the United Kingdom was also extended, but there has been no participation.
Strengths
First, the timing. The Normandy format or the talks started at a crucial point. It had served as a quick barricade to the conflict from escalating further in 2014 or reduce the intensity, when Russia was at war in eastern Ukraine after annexing Crimea.
Second, the format. The four-way format is the best approach to diplomacy. It allows Russia, a powerful country, to put forth its demands. In the same way, it also provides Ukraine, which is comparatively a weaker one, a protective stage to voice its concerns. Apart from the conflicting parties, the format also sets the stage for the region's top countries, France and Germany, to oversee and engage in negotiation.
Thirds, Europe as mediator. Instead of involving external powers to mediate the issue inside the region, the format allows solving regional interactions, which is an advantage to avoid escalations and reduce tensions.
Weakness
First, convincing Russia. France and Germany's renewed attempts to negotiate with Russia under the Normandy format do show their tactical approach but are yet to be proven. The demand of Russia and the needs of Ukraine are at two extreme points, making it a challenge for France and Germany to establish a common ground.
Second, failure to install peace in eastern Ukraine. The purpose of forming the Normandy format in 2014 was to attain peace in the region. Although a ceasefire was achieved through the attempts of Minsk agreements, reducing the intensity of violence, Russia still operates the region through the separatist group, which has now led to threatening the national security of Ukraine. Therefore, it shows the ineffectiveness of the format because it has been present since 2014 and did not foresee the threat nor did anything to prevent it from happening.
Third, the Nord Stream 2 pipeline is out of focus. A controversial pipeline that involves Ukraine, Germany, and Russia is not on the discussion agenda. Germany still has reservations over Russia on the pipeline, leading to mistrust between Ukraine and Germany. Thereby can create a crack in the proceedings of the Normandy talks.
References:
“Normandy Four meets in Berlin: Ukraine benefits as advisors fail to agree,” Ukraine Crisis media center, 11 February 2022
“Has weeklong diplomacy made war in Ukraine any less likely?,” Deutsche Welle, 10 February 2022
“EXPLAINER: What are the key parts of Ukraine's peace deal?,” Washington Post, 10 February 2022
IN BRIEF
By Ashwin Dhanabalan and Joeana Cera Matthews
THE UK
PM Johnson sent a questionnaire from the police
On 11 February, UK’s Prime Minister Boris Johnson said he received a legal questionnaire from the police due to his involvement in the partygate scandal. Johnson said he had seven days to respond to the email as the Metropolitan Police investigated the 12 parties held in Downing Street. These parties were not included in Sue Gray’s report as they did not happen in government buildings. As reported by The Guardian: “The former Conservative leader Iain Duncan Smith has warned Boris Johnson it will be hard to cling to power if the Metropolitan police finds he breached Covid rules.” (“‘Partygate’: Boris Johnson sent questionnaire from police,” Deutsche Welle, 11 February 2022; Jem Bartholomew, “Boris Johnson’s position ‘difficult’ if Met fines him, warns Iain Duncan Smith,” The Guardian, 12 February 2022)
UKRAINE
Remembering the great famine amidst tensions with Moscow
On 12 February, Ukraine’s recent tensions with Russia reminded the people of the Great Famine that happened in the 1930s. The famine was caused partly by the Soviet Dictator Joseph Stalin and his policies of forced collectivization of farms. An estimated four million people were killed in the famine, and Ukraine called the death by starvation. With the tensions rising with Moscow, Ukrainians were reminded of the memories they suffered under the Kremlin. (“Ukraine’s Great Famine memories fuel resentment of Kremlin,” BBC, 12 February 2022)
BREXIT
UK Foreign SecretaryLiz Truss meets with EU Maroš Šefčovič in London
On 12 February, the UK and EU stated that they would hold another round of intensive discussions after the recent negotiations between UK Foreign SecretaryLiz Truss and EU Commission Vice President Maroš Šefčovič came to an end. Truss said: “Fixing the Northern Ireland Protocol is an absolute priority for me. We have a shared responsibility with the EU to work towards solutions as quickly as possible that deliver for the people of Northern Ireland.” (Jayne McCormack, “Brexit: UK and EU to continue ‘intensive’ NI protocol talks,” BBC, 12 February 2022)
INTERNATIONAL
Ukraine: Biden and Putin schedule phone conversation
On 12 February, Reuters reported the US President Joe Biden and Russian President Vladimir Putin to have scheduled telephonic talks. The call, requested by Putin, comes amidst escalating tensions in Ukraine. Meanwhile, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken commented: "I continue to hope that he will not choose the path of renewed aggression and he'll chose the path of diplomacy and dialogue… But if he doesn't, we're prepared." TASS news agency also reported Putin to have scheduled talks with French President Emmanuel Macron on the same day. (Trevor Hunnicutt, "Biden and Putin to speak as Ukraine warnings mount," Reuters, 12 February 2022)
Ukraine: NATO expands troop deployment along eastern flank
On 11 February, NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg met with Romanian President Klaus Iohannis. Stoltenberg announced that the alliance would increase its military presence in eastern Ukraine while considering a long-term presence in the Black Sea region. He commented: “There is an ongoing strengthening of our NATO presence in the eastern part of the alliance… We’ve also increased the readiness of NATO’s response force." He added: "On top of that we are considering more longer-term adjustments in our posture, and that includes establishing battlegroups in the southeast of the alliance, meaning Romania but also other countries around the Black Sea region.” ("NATO welcomes more U.S. forces to Romania, says reinforcing in east," Reuters, 11 February 2022)
The UK and the US send advisories, asking citizens to leave Kyiv
On 11 February, the US and UK sent warnings to their citizens in Ukraine to evacuate within 48 hours due to an imminent threat from Russia. Attempts to de-escalate tensions were continuing, but the US’ statement has prompted other counties also to issue new advisories regarding Ukraine. UK ambassador to Ukraine Melinda Simmons said she would be staying with a core team of officials in Kyiv. White House National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan said: “As we’ve said before, we are in the window when an invasion could begin at any time should Vladimir Putin decide to order it.” The warnings led to the rise of the US dollar, and its oil crude futures also rose more than five percent to USD 94.66 a barrel. (“Ukraine tensions: Russia invasion could begin any day, US warns,” BBC, 11 February 2022; Hannah Lang and Herbert Lash, “Dollar gains as Ukraine tensions rise after US warning,” Reuters, 12 February 2022)